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October 26.2025
2 Minutes Read

Why Caution is Key for Investors Using the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model

Investors should be 'cautious' when using BTC stock-to-flow model: Analyst

Bitcoin Price Predictions: A Cautious Approach

The Bitcoin ecosystem continues to buzz with predictions and strategies for investment as analysts weigh the effectiveness of various valuation models. At the forefront is the controversial Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, which has sparked heated debates among cryptocurrency investors. Recently, André Dragosch at Bitwise highlighted significant concerns about this model, urging investors to proceed with caution due to its inability to account for demand-side influences.

According to Dragosch, the S2F model projects astonishing price targets, with an anticipated peak of $222,000 during the current market cycle; however, he emphasizes that this framework is narrow in scope. Instead of considering a full ecosystem of factors such as institutional demand and macroeconomic trends, S2F merely tracks the supply reductions caused by Bitcoin halving events—these occur approximately every four years and reward miners with half the new Bitcoins.

The Limitations of the Stock-to-Flow Model

While S2F provides a fascinating lens through which to view Bitcoin's price trajectory, its limitations are becoming increasingly apparent. For instance, as Dragosch points out, institutional demand via exchange-traded products (ETPs) dramatically outstrips the annualized supply reduction—currently by a factor of more than seven times. This disparity highlights how market demand can significantly deviate from the restricted supply envisioned by static models like S2F.

Analysts and investors alike should accordingly expand their frameworks. For instance, the Power Law model offers a longer-term view of Bitcoin pricing, emphasizing sustainability over speculative peaks. The model captures shifts in market volatility and reveals that while price surges are impressive, they are not always sustainable if based solely on scarcity, without accounting for demand dynamics.

Incorporating Broader Economic Factors

Reflecting on the broader economic context is paramount. Matt Crosby notes that relying too heavily on the S2F model makes one susceptible to oversight regarding global liquidity cycles and institutional adoption. Bitcoin’s price does not operate in a vacuum; it is intricately tied to economic factors that can shift dramatically and affect investor behavior.

For instance, regulatory developments, liquidity conditions, and broader economic trends all play vital roles in determining market sentiment and price movements. Multiple analysts predict that Bitcoin could see price points between $200,000 to $500,000 by 2026. Still, these estimates must be approached with skepticism; the market remains sensitive to external shocks.

Future Trends and Actionable Insights for Investors

For investors navigating this tumultuous landscape, the key takeaway is to use caution. Embracing a variety of models—notably including S2F, Power Law, and real-time metrics—will create a more resilient strategy. Utilizing data such as the MVRV Z-Score or SOPR can help investors gauge market sentiment and identify behavioral patterns informing price recovery or declines.

As the market continues to mature, especially with growing institutional engagement, understanding dynamic economic contexts will be critical in avoiding the pitfalls inherent to rigid predictive models. Looking ahead, expect volatility to remain a feature of the Bitcoin landscape, thus necessitating adaptability and multi-faceted analytical approaches.

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01.19.2026

Trove's Shift to Solana Sparks Investor Backlash: Insights and Implications

Update Investors React to Trove's Sudden Shift to Solana The recent announcement from Trove Markets to pivot their decentralized perpetual exchange from the anticipated Hyperliquid platform to Solana has ignited a firestorm among investors. Despite raising over $11.5 million during their token sale aimed at Hyperliquid integration, many backers now feel misled and are demanding refunds. The pivot, attributed to a liquidity partner's withdrawal of essential tokens, exemplifies the volatility and unpredictability inherent in the crypto space. The Implications of Trove's Strategic Shift The move to Solana not only affects Trove's community but also raises important questions about the liquidity and stability of liquid markets. Market analysts highlight that Trove's focus on a niche, such as trading collectible items like Pokémon cards and Counter-Strike skins, could be both a boon and a bane in leveraging the growing $21.4 billion collectibles market projected by Bitwise. However, some investors cite that Trove's failure to stick to initial commitments could erode trust in new and existing crypto projects. Echoes of Security Concerns in the crypto ecosystem The turbulence surrounding Trove's transition to Solana resonates with ongoing security concerns in the crypto infrastructure. Just last November, the Upbit exchange suffered a significant breach implicating Solana-based assets, which attracted considerable scrutiny towards security vulnerabilities in decentralized finance (DeFi) spaces. Since Trove's strategy involves an entirely new build on Solana, analysts urge them to adopt rigorous security measures early in their development cycle. A Broader Trend: Community Sentiment in Crypto Investments The outcry from Trove investors isn't an isolated incident but rather part of a broader trend seen in the cryptocurrency segment where investor sentiment swings sharply with announcements. The demand for refunds and the community's calls for transparency underscore the importance of maintaining strong communications in crypto ventures, especially after significant funding rounds. Transparency, as seen in moves by dYdX with their BONK integration, can help stabilize community trust, something Trove desperately needs during this rocky transition. Looking Ahead: The Future of Trove on Solana Trove’s pivot could either be a strategic move that leads to eventual success or another cautionary tale in a field not unfamiliar with failed ventures. As they prepare for their token generation event amid rising community dissatisfaction, it remains to be seen if their switch will genuinely cater to user demands or merely perpetuate further discord within their investor base. In conclusion, whether Trove can secure investor trust through effective pivot strategies will critically shape their trajectory on Solana. With volatility and investor sentiment playing critical roles in shaping market outcomes, maintaining an informed and engaged community is paramount for any success on the blockchain frontier.

01.17.2026

Coinbase's Standoff With Washington: What It Means for Crypto Regulation

Update Coinbase's Influence Grows Amid Legislative Uncertainty As the struggle for regulatory clarity intensifies in U.S. crypto markets, the recent standoff between Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and the White House underscores the growing power of cryptocurrency stakeholders within Washington. Armstrong’s assertion earlier this week that Coinbase could not support a key legislative effort, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, serves as a stark indication of how pivotal the largest U.S. crypto company has become in shaping legislative outcomes. After his public critique, critical Senate negotiations came to an abrupt halt—a clear demonstration of the leverage held by Coinbase as they navigate the complex landscape of policy-making. The Regulatory Landscape: What’s at Stake? The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, a comprehensive piece of legislation designed to regulate cryptocurrencies, faced swift repercussions following Armstrong’s critique. The bill has been in the works for several months, with significant input from industry stakeholders, yet Armstrong’s objections—focused primarily on stablecoin provisions and the bill's perceived overreach of regulatory power—threaten its viability. This confrontation is emblematic of a broader tension between emerging crypto companies and traditional banking interests, which have historically dominated the regulatory dialogue. Coinbase’s Strategic Positioning in Washington Coinbase’s ascent in political influence is a remarkable evolution for a tech company that’s quickly transitioned from a startup to a market leader valued at approximately $70 billion. The firm has invested heavily in political action committees supporting pro-crypto candidates, signaling a strategic intent to shape the regulatory framework favorably for its operations. This fiscal commitment illustrates Coinbase's recognition that influence in legislative matters is a critically important aspect of its business model. Friction with the White House: A Sign of the Times The implications of this clash resonate wider than just Capitol Hill—it's reflective of a generational shift in how cryptocurrencies are approached by policymakers. Armstrong characterized the administration's approach as an example of 'regulatory capture' by banks, which he argues threatens fair competition in the financial landscape. Meanwhile, tensions are brewing as the White House reportedly expressed frustration over Coinbase's sudden withdrawal of support, likening it to a 'rug pull.' Such comments hint at a fraught relationship between Silicon Valley innovation and traditional regulatory practices. Future Predictions: Navigating Unchartered Waters The outcome of this legislative skirmish may have lasting implications for the crypto industry. With Coinbase at the helm of advocacy for more favorable regulations, there's a risk that a legislative vacuum—if the act fails to pass—could embolden unregulated crypto practices that increase financial risk for consumers. Conversely, a swift resolution that aligns industry interests with regulatory frameworks could yield a balanced market, encouraging innovation while still providing consumer protections. Conclusion: The Implications for Investors and Stakeholders As the legislative process unfolds, stakeholders in the cryptocurrency economy must stay vigilant. The decisions made in Congress will not only determine the immediate future of companies like Coinbase but also shape the broader landscape of digital finance. Understanding these dynamics is essential for investors and industry participants alike. Keeping abreast of developments as negotiations continue will be crucial for anyone involved in or looking to invest in the cryptocurrency space.

01.16.2026

Newrez Becomes First Major Lender to Accept Cryptocurrency for Mortgage Approval

Update Newrez Pioneers Crypto Asset Inclusion in Mortgage Approval In a groundbreaking move aimed at revolutionizing the mortgage industry, Newrez, a prominent U.S. lender, has announced that starting February, it will officially accept cryptocurrency holdings as qualifying assets in its mortgage application process. This policy update permits prospective borrowers to include Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) linked to these cryptocurrencies, and U.S. dollar-backed stablecoins, marking a significant shift from the traditional requirement to liquidate such assets for approval. Understanding the Shift: Why Now? Newrez's decision is rooted in the undeniable rise of cryptocurrency adoption, particularly among younger investors. According to their data, approximately 45% of Gen Z and Millennial investors own cryptocurrencies. This demographic shift highlights a crucial need for financial institutions to adapt to changing asset portfolios as digital currencies gain traction. Newrez's Chief Commercial Officer, Leslie Gillin, articulates this by stating, "Our mission at Newrez is to do everything possible to make home happen, and this innovation marks yet another step in creating new pathways to homeownership." Regulatory Backing and Future Perspectives The move also aligns well with broader regulatory efforts that contemplate the role of cryptocurrencies in mortgage risk assessments. The U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has previously prompted major agencies, such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, to evaluate how digital assets could factor into single-family mortgage underwriting. This indicates a thoughtful consideration of consumer financial behaviors in legislation, underscoring the potential impact of digital currencies on housing affordability. The Pros and Cons of Crypto-Backed Mortgages While the integration of cryptocurrencies into mortgage approvals opens new doors for access to financing, it does not come without risks. Critics of cryptocurrency adoption, particularly in the lending sphere, point to the volatile nature of these assets which could complicate borrowing conditions, potentially leading to unfavorable adjustments or margin calls if asset values decline drastically. These concerns reflect the caution necessary in extending this practice to maintain lending integrity. Innovating Mortgage Solutions for Future Generations Newrez's initiative places it at the forefront of a wave of innovation within the mortgage industry, encouraging loyalty and access for a tech-savvy generation unwilling to fit traditional molds. By allowing crypto assets in its Smart Series loans without requiring their liquidation, the company enables potential homeowners to preserve their investments while pursuing their dream of homeownership. Other lenders are already eyeing this shift, as the market adapts to the increased inclusion of digital assets in personal finances. Call to Action: New Lenders on the Horizon The growing acceptance of crypto in various aspects of home financing suggests an exciting transition in the mortgage landscape. By keeping abreast of developments in this sector, consumers and investors alike can gain strategic insights into how to navigate what’s becoming an essential area of modern finance. Stay informed on the evolving financial landscape and prepare for proactive engagement as lenders continue to adapt to these technological advancements.

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